We Studied 11,827 Okanagan Apartment Sales—Here’s What Actually Mattered
Most people believe success in real estate comes down to timing.
Buy before prices rise.
Avoid buying near the top.
Wait for interest rates to fall.
Sell before the market slows down.
But after reviewing 11,827 apartment resales across the Central Okanagan, one factor mattered more consistently than any of those things.
It wasn’t the interest rate.
It wasn’t the year someone bought.
It wasn’t whether the market was hot or slow.
It was how long they owned the property.
Looking across approximately 27 years of apartment sales, owners who held their property for around 10 years resold for more than they originally paid about 99% of the time.
That does not mean every apartment was a perfect investment.
It does not mean prices always went up.
It means that time helped reduce the importance of short-term market timing.
The Biggest Real Estate Risk May Not Be Buying at the Wrong Time
Buyers often ask me:
“Is now a good time to buy?”
It sounds like a simple question, but it assumes we can accurately predict what the market will do next.
We can’t.
Prices can soften after you buy.
Interest rates can change.
Inventory can increase.
A strong market can slow down faster than expected.
The better question is:
“How long am I likely to own this property?”
Our research showed that shorter ownership periods produced less predictable results.
The longer someone owned, the more likely they were to resell for more than their original purchase price.
That makes sense.
When you only own for a short time, your result depends heavily on what the market does immediately after you buy.
When you own for longer, the property has more time to move through different parts of the real estate cycle.
How Often Did Okanagan Apartment Owners Come Out Ahead?
Among apartment owners who held for approximately 10 years, about 99% resold for more than their original purchase price.
That is a powerful number, but it needs to be understood properly.
For this analysis, coming out ahead means the recorded resale price was higher than the recorded purchase price.
It does not automatically mean the owner earned a large net profit after every expense.
Owners may also have paid:
- Mortgage interest
- Strata fees
- Property taxes
- Insurance
- Repairs and renovations
- Legal fees
- Real estate commissions
- Property transfer tax when purchasing
Inflation also changes what money is worth over time.
However, the finding still matters.
It shows that owners who stayed for a longer period were far less dependent on buying during the perfect month or year.
How Did the Results Change Based on Holding Time?
The shortest ownership periods had the most uncertainty.
Someone who purchased and sold again within a few years had less time to recover from:
- A market slowdown
- A poorly timed purchase
- An unexpected special assessment
- Transaction expenses
- A change in buyer demand
- Higher borrowing costs
As holding periods increased, the results became more consistent.
A buyer who owned for only two or three years was much more exposed to whatever happened in the market immediately after purchasing.
A buyer who owned for closer to 10 years experienced more than one market condition.
They may have owned through rising prices, slower sales, higher inventory, falling interest rates or increasing interest rates.
Time did not remove every risk.
But it reduced the importance of being perfectly right about the market on the day they bought.
Did Buying Near a Market Peak Automatically Lead to a Loss?
No.
Buying near a market peak increased the risk of a short-term loss, but it did not guarantee a long-term loss.
This is an important distinction.
Someone who purchased near the top and needed to sell two years later could be in a difficult position.
Someone who purchased during that same period but owned for much longer had more time for the market, their mortgage balance and their personal situation to change.
This challenges one of the most common beliefs about real estate:
Buying at the peak does not always cause the loss. Being forced to sell shortly after the peak often creates the bigger problem.
That is why personal planning matters.
A buyer should not only ask whether they can afford the property today.
They should also ask:
- Could my job require me to move?
- Is my family likely to outgrow this property?
- Am I still learning which neighbourhood fits me?
- Could a relationship or lifestyle change affect my plans?
- Would I be comfortable owning this home through a slower market?
The right property is not just one you can purchase.
It is one you are likely to keep long enough for ownership to make sense.
What Happened During Slow Real Estate Markets?
The 27 years included strong markets, weak markets and periods when prices barely moved.
Apartment owners did not experience one smooth line upward.
There were periods with:
- Fewer buyers
- Rising inventory
- Longer selling times
- Economic uncertainty
- Higher interest rates
- Falling prices in certain buildings or neighbourhoods
Owners who needed to sell during one of those periods were more exposed.
Owners who had the ability to wait were in a different position.
This does not mean everyone should refuse to sell during a slow market.
Sometimes life matters more than the price.
People move for work, family, health, divorce, retirement or a better opportunity.
The lesson is not that selling is bad.
The lesson is that flexibility becomes extremely valuable when the market is not cooperating.
Was Time More Important Than Interest Rates?
Interest rates matter.
They affect mortgage payments, buyer demand and the amount someone can qualify to borrow.
But interest rates are only one part of the ownership experience.
During the 27 years covered by the research, owners experienced periods of both rising and falling rates.
Despite those changing conditions, holding time remained one of the clearest indicators of whether an owner eventually resold for more than they paid.
A lower rate cannot fix buying the wrong property and needing to sell quickly.
A higher rate does not automatically make a long-term purchase unsuccessful.
This is why I would not make a buying decision based only on where mortgage rates might move over the next six months.
Rates can change.
Your mortgage can eventually renew.
But the wrong home, wrong location or wrong stage of life can force a move before you are ready.
Real Estate Is Not One Market
Another lesson from reviewing thousands of apartment sales is that not every property performs the same way.
Two apartments purchased in the same year can have very different results.
Performance may be affected by:
- The building
- Location
- Floor plan
- View
- Strata fees
- Age and condition
- Rental restrictions
- Pet restrictions
- Insurance issues
- Upcoming repairs
- Special assessments
- Competing new construction
The broad market might rise while one building falls behind.
Another building may outperform because it is well managed, has a strong location or offers a type of unit buyers have difficulty finding.
Holding time can improve the odds, but it does not turn every property into a good purchase.
Time helps most when the buyer also chooses the right property.
Renting Can Be the Smarter Decision
This research should not be used to pressure people into buying.
In fact, it can support the decision to rent.
Renting may make more sense when:
- You might relocate within a few years
- You are new to Kelowna and do not know the neighbourhoods
- Your income or employment is changing
- You need to improve your financial position
- Flexibility matters more than stability
- You are not ready for maintenance and ownership costs
- You would be stretching your budget too far
Renting is not necessarily falling behind.
Sometimes renting protects you from making a short-term purchase that carries long-term consequences.
You are paying for a place to live, but you are also paying for flexibility.
The real question is whether that flexibility is more valuable to you right now than the stability of ownership.
What About Townhouses and Detached Homes?
The same basic principle can apply to townhouses and detached homes.
Short ownership periods leave people more exposed to transaction costs and short-term market movements.
Longer ownership gives the property more time to move through different market cycles.
However, each property type has different risks.
Townhouse owners may face strata fees, special assessments and restrictions.
Detached homeowners usually have more control, but they are responsible for the full cost of repairs and maintenance.
The purchase price is also typically higher, which can make changes in borrowing costs more meaningful.
The specific numbers may differ between apartments, townhouses and detached homes.
But the broader lesson remains:
The shorter your expected ownership period, the more carefully you need to think about whether buying makes sense.
What This Research Does—and Does Not—Prove
This data does not prove that buying is always better than renting.
It does not guarantee that every apartment will increase in value.
It does not account for every cost an owner paid during the years they owned.
It also cannot predict what apartment prices will do next year.
What it does show is that short-term market timing was less important for owners who were able to hold for a longer period.
That changes how we should talk about buying real estate.
Instead of asking:
“Will prices rise next year?”
Consider asking:
“Does this property fit the life I expect to have for the next five to 10 years?”
Instead of asking:
“Am I missing the market?”
Ask:
“Would buying give me more stability, or would it take away flexibility I still need?”
Instead of asking:
“Should I wait for the perfect time?”
Ask:
“Am I personally ready to own?”
Don’t Time the Market. Time Your Life.
The biggest lesson from 11,827 Central Okanagan apartment resales was not that real estate always goes up.
It was that time gave owners more room to be wrong.
They did not need to predict every interest-rate move.
They did not need to purchase during the perfect year.
They did not need the market to rise immediately after they bought.
They needed a property that fit their life and enough time for the decision to work.
That is why buying should not start with a market prediction.
It should start with your plans.
Where do you expect to live?
How stable is your income?
How much flexibility do you need?
What happens if prices fall temporarily?
Could you comfortably own the property for five, seven or 10 years?
Real estate is not about finding the perfect market.
It is about matching the decision to the stage of life you are in.
Don’t time the market. Time your life.
Mark & Maddie
Selling Okanagan Group | eXp Realty Kelowna
778-946-6454
[email protected]
Research Note
The analysis referenced in this article reviewed 11,827 apartment resale transactions across the Central Okanagan over approximately 27 years.
“Came out ahead” refers to properties that later resold for more than their recorded purchase price. It should not be interpreted as a calculation of total net investment return after mortgage interest, strata fees, taxes, insurance, repairs, commissions, legal fees, inflation or other ownership costs.
Past resale results do not guarantee future property values or investment performance.
