BCREA’s New Forecast Is Out — And the Okanagan Stands Alone
The newest BCREA housing forecast just came out, and it finally gives us a clearer picture of where the Okanagan might be heading.
Our region is holding steady while much of BC is still trying to find its footing.
And for anyone living in Kelowna, planning a move, or watching the market closely… this update matters.
The Okanagan Is One of BC’s Steadiest Markets Right Now
While Vancouver and the Fraser Valley continue to deal with slower sales and falling prices, the Okanagan is moving the opposite way.
BCREA forecasts 8,600 sales in the Okanagan for 2025 — a +10.4% jump, the strongest in the entire province.
Keep in mind, this increase is compared to the slowest sales period we’ve seen in 15 years, which makes the percentage look larger. But still — the Okanagan is leading BC.
How Other Regions Compare
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Greater Vancouver: –3.4%
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Fraser Valley: –16.8%
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Chilliwack: –9.1%
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Victoria: +1.8%
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Vancouver Island: +1.6%
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Kamloops: +2.4%
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Kootenay: +6.2%
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BC Northern: +4.7%
The Okanagan is the standout.
Momentum is clearly shifting, and buyer behaviour is starting to show more confidence.
Prices in Kelowna: Not Rising Fast, Not Falling Either
Most people want to know: Are prices going up or down?
According to BCREA, Kelowna and the Okanagan remain one of the most stable markets in BC.
2025 Average Price Forecast
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Okanagan: $765,500 (+2.9%)
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Single-Family Homes: $980,000
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Townhomes: $646,000
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Apartments: $471,000
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Lower Mainland Price Forecasts (Falling)
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Greater Vancouver: –3.7%
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Fraser Valley: –3.1%
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Chilliwack: –0.7%
Vancouver Island
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Victoria: +2.2%
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Island Board: +2.1%
Interior & Northern BC
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Kamloops: +2.4%
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Kootenay: +3.6%
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BC Northern: +4.5%
Takeaway:
Kelowna is near the top for price stability and modest growth.
And here’s my honest opinion:
Move-in-ready single-family homes will see stronger price growth than townhomes and condos over the next 1–2 years.
Government policy (Bill 44, Build Canada Homes) is pushing heavy density. Detached homes aren’t being replaced — and when something stops being built, it usually becomes more valuable.
I’m not normally someone who pressures buyers…
But if you want a single-family home, waiting could cost you.
I truly believe 2026 is when detached home prices break away from the rest of the market.
👉 Download the Free Kelowna Home Buyer’s Guide.
Mortgage Rates: The Big Wild Card
BCREA expects mortgage rates to fall slowly through 2025 and into early 2026 as the Bank of Canada continues easing.
If that happens, we’ll likely see:
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More buyers stepping back in
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Faster sales
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More competition on well-priced homes
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A much more active 2026
2025 feels like pressure being released from the high-rate years.
My gut? Sales will keep improving, and single-family homes will continue to rise in value.
What I’m Seeing Across the Okanagan Right Now
Across Kelowna, West Kelowna, and Lake Country, the pattern is the same:
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Lots of inventory
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Plenty of price reductions
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Buyers taking more time
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Well-priced homes still selling fast
It’s a “slow until it’s not” kind of market.
Two homes we sold recently had only two showings each — but both sold anyway.
If a home checks the boxes and is priced right, it still moves.
But don’t be fooled by the high inventory numbers:
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Development land sales are almost nonexistent
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Land assemblies have paused
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Investor activity is low
This is what a true transition year looks like — slow on the surface, shifting underneath.
A Personal Note: I’m Skeptical… But I’m Also Really Encouraged
You know me — I like to be straight about this stuff.
Forecasts are helpful, but they’re not reality. People drive markets.
And right now?
People with serious money are betting on the Okanagan.
Recent Mega-Sales in the Region
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September: $17.5M sale
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October: $32M sale — the highest single month ever recorded here
Unless someone inherited $32M and is desperately trying to spend it (wink wink 😄)… these kinds of purchases usually mean something.
People who can afford to be wrong… usually aren’t.
The big players move first while everyone else is still half asleep at the wheel.
And right now?
They’re buying here.
And honestly? I get it.
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Sunshine
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Lakes
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Wineries
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Skiing
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Hiking
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Space
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Safety
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Community
Call me biased, but the Okanagan really is one of the best places to live in Canada.
And if you’re thinking about living in Kelowna, these trends matter.
Why 2026 Might Be the Start of a New Real Estate Cycle
We’re already seeing hints of what’s coming:
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More showings
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More confidence
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Strong luxury activity
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Steadier pricing
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Buyers planning earlier for 2026
Smart buyers position themselves early — not after the crowd catches on.
Want a Custom Market Report for Your Street or Neighbourhood?
If you want a simple 1-page breakdown for:
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Your street
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Your neighbourhood
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Your property type
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Detached / townhome / condo trends
Just reply with your street name or area.
I’ll send you a custom breakdown — no pressure, no cost.
👉 Subscribe to my weekly Okanagan market update
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Thinking About Making a Move? Let’s Talk.
Living in Kelowna is special — and choosing the right place at the right time really matters.
If you’re planning a move, want to understand the market, or just need clarity, we’re here to help.
Mark & Maddie — eXp Realty Kelowna
📞 778-744-0872
📩 [email protected]
