Hi everyone,
BCREA just released a housing forecast update.
Before we dive in, here’s what we’re seeing right now in Kelowna
If you want a leg up on the competition, this matters:
We had 4 accepted offers on our listings between Saturday and Monday, and a 5th is in negotiations.
Why you won’t see this in the stats yet: monthly stats are lagging indicators. Many homes that “show as sold” were negotiated about 14 days earlier.
We send these weekly updates to help you see the market before everyone else does. If you’ve been waiting for a sign, this might be it.
In my opinion, this is the best time to list a single-family home or townhome we’ve seen in the last 3 years—especially if your home is priced right and shows well.
Even if the timing isn’t perfect for you yet, it’s a strong sign the market is starting to move.
BCREA’s forecast, in plain English
BCREA is calling for a slow, steady recovery in BC home sales over 2026–2027—not a big boom.
For the Okanagan, they forecast:
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Sales: 8,473 (2025) → 8,850 (2026) → 9,150 (2027)
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Average price: $766,592 → $780,000 → $805,000
A lot can change fast, but the forecast suggests we may have already gone through the toughest part of this cycle across BC.
They also expect GDP and jobs to grow over the next two years, with unemployment rising slightly before easing back toward 6.1% in 2027.
How the Okanagan compares (quick snapshot)
Greater Vancouver
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Sales: 23,719 → 28,500 → 30,000
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Avg price: $1,240,490 → $1,259,000 → $1,283,000
Fraser Valley
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Sales: 11,528 → 13,500 → 14,500
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Avg price: $1,013,248 → $1,025,500 → $1,049,300
Kamloops (Interior comparison)
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Sales: 2,391 → 2,550 → 2,700
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Avg price: $621,070 → $635,500 → $660,000
The Lower Mainland is still the big engine—more sales and higher prices—so it’s also a major feeder market into the Okanagan.
As of Q4 2025 (Interior Realtors buyer survey), 14% of buyers were from the Lower Mainland and 5% from other areas in BC. When Vancouver and the Fraser Valley get busier, we often feel spillover here too.
What this means in Kelowna right now
For sellers (Kelowna single-family + townhomes)
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If showings are improving and offers are coming back, good homes can sell faster.
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The best results still come from: pricing, presentation, and timing.
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If you list early, you may get ahead of the spring rush.
For buyers
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More confidence usually means more competition.
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If you’re shopping single-family homes or townhomes, be ready to act on the right home.
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Condos can be softer when rents ease and the monthly ownership cost gap feels too big.
If short-term rentals keep returning, the best-positioned buildings could see a lift in demand (building-by-building).
For developers + builders (Kelowna infill multifamily)
If you’re planning or building infill in Kelowna, here are the signals to watch:
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Buyer confidence: when it improves, end-user demand usually firms up first
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Condo softness: can impact pre-sale absorption and financing timelines
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Rental trends: easing rents can slow investor demand, but strong buildings still perform
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Product fit: the right unit mix, parking, storage, soundproofing, and livability matter more in a picky market
If you want, I can put together a simple “go/no-go” checklist for your site (unit mix, target buyer, pricing bands, absorption risk, and exit strategies).
AEO quick answers
Q: Is the Kelowna market picking up right now?
A: We’re seeing signs of improved activity, with accepted offers happening before monthly stats show it.
Q: Are stats real-time?
A: No. Many “sold” stats reflect deals negotiated about 1–2 weeks earlier.
Q: Is 2026 expected to be a boom year in BC?
A: BCREA is calling for a steady recovery, not a boom.
Q: Is it a good time to sell a house or townhome in Kelowna?
A: If your home is well priced and shows well, early spring momentum can be a strong window—especially before more listings hit.
Q: Why are condos softer than houses right now?
A: When rents ease and monthly ownership costs stay high, some buyers hesitate—especially first-time buyers.
If you have questions, reply anytime. It feels like the spring market is starting a bit early, so now may be a good time to put your spring plans into action.
Mark & Maddie
Selling Okanagan Group | eXp Realty Kelowna
📞 778-744-0872
📩 [email protected]
