Should I Move in the Kelowna Real Estate Market?
Happy Wednesday,
Last week I said there is not just one Okanagan real estate market.
There are many.
Kelowna condos are acting different than West Kelowna single-family homes. Entry-level homes are acting different than luxury homes. New construction is acting different than older resale homes. And infill multifamily land is playing by a different set of rules again.
So this week, let’s ask the harder question.
Not “how’s the market?”
The real question is:
Should I move?
Is Now a Good Time to Buy or Sell in Kelowna?
Moving is a big decision.
It is not just about the money. It is the work, the stress, the packing, the timing, the kids, the job, the mortgage, and the fear of making the wrong call.
But here is the part people do not always talk about:
There is also a cost to not moving.
Waiting is not free. Staying put is still a decision. You may not see the cost on a closing statement, but you can feel it later in missed equity, missed inventory, missed lifestyle, or a market window that closed before you acted.
Maddie and I ask ourselves the same question. We run the numbers. We talk about moving. And right now, for us, the answer is still no.
But at some point, that may change.
So I am not saying everyone should move. I am saying the reason you are waiting deserves an honest look.
“I’m Waiting for Interest Rates to Drop”
This is one of the biggest reasons buyers and sellers in Kelowna give.
But the drop already happened.
The Bank of Canada has cut rates multiple times. The overnight rate moved from 5% to 2.25%. Prime dropped from its peak of 7.2% to 4.45%.
That was the rate relief many people were waiting for.
But buyers did not rush back in.
Central Okanagan single-family sales are down year over year through mid-June, even with cheaper money.
So if someone says they are waiting for rates, it is worth asking:
Are you really waiting for rates, or are you waiting to feel certain?
Because certainty usually comes late. And by the time everyone feels good again, the best deals are often gone.
“I’m Waiting for Kelowna Home Prices to Drop”
This one is partly fair.
But “prices” is not one market.
In the Central Okanagan:
Homes under $1M are still tighter, with fewer options and faster movement.
Homes from $1M to $1.5M have more supply and more room to negotiate.
Homes over $1.5M are much softer, with higher inventory and longer days on market.
So if you are a buyer waiting for a big price drop under $1M, you may be watching the wrong part of the market.
If you are shopping in the upper end, the softness many buyers wanted is already here.
For sellers, this matters too. Pricing strategy in Kelowna depends heavily on your price bracket, property type, and competition.
A $775,000 home and a $1.75M home are not in the same fight.
“I’m Waiting Because Rents Are Falling”
This is a real reason.
Kelowna and Central Okanagan rents have softened. Vacancy has increased, and renting is less stressful than it was a couple years ago.
For some buyers, renting a bit longer may make sense.
But finish the sentence:
What do rents need to do next for waiting to pay off?
If the answer is “keep falling forever,” that is not a plan. That is hope.
Rents fell because a lot of new supply hit the market at once. That can help renters in the short term. But supply cycles change.
Renting may be the right choice, but it still has a cost. You are not building equity. You are not paying down your own mortgage. And you are still exposed to future rent changes.
We will dig into that more next week.
“I’m Waiting for the New-Build Flood to Clear”
This is the one I would actually sit down and work through.
Because here, waiting can be smart.
There is a lot of new construction inventory in the Central Okanagan right now. Condos built in 2022 or later make up a large share of active condo listings. Newer single-family homes are also sitting, especially at higher price points.
For buyers, this can create opportunity.
For sellers, it creates pressure.
For developers and Kelowna home builders, this is a key signal.
The market is dealing with a supply wave, but the building pipeline is already slowing. Housing starts are down in Kelowna, BC, and across Canada. That matters.
Real estate supply cycles usually work like this:
Inventory builds.
Builders pull back.
The backlog clears.
Then there is a lag before new construction catches up again.
During that lag, supply can tighten quickly.
So if you are a developer, infill builder, or landowner in Kelowna, the question is not just “is the market soft?”
The better question is:
Will your project be ready when today’s inventory is gone and tomorrow’s shortage starts?
That is where infill multifamily planning gets interesting.
For Kelowna Developers and Infill Builders
If you are looking at duplexes, fourplexes, townhomes, or small multifamily infill in Kelowna, waiting can either protect you or cost you.
The key is knowing which market you are building into.
You need to look at:
Current resale competition
New-build inventory
Absorption rates
Land cost
Financing cost
Construction timelines
City of Kelowna zoning and infill policy
Buyer demand by price point
Rental demand if the project pivots to hold
A soft market can actually be when good builders make their best decisions, because land sellers may be more realistic and competition may slow down.
But you still need to know your exit.
Are you building to sell?
Building to rent?
Holding long term?
Or trying to create missing-middle housing in a neighbourhood where demand is still strong?
The answer changes the whole strategy.
The Real Reason People Wait
Here is what all these reasons have in common:
Rates. Prices. Rents. Supply. Construction.
They are external.
They are things you do not control.
And that is why they are comfortable to point at.
Sometimes “I’m waiting for the market” is true.
But sometimes it is the easier thing to say when the real reason is more personal.
Maybe it is the kids.
Maybe it is health.
Maybe it is job security.
Maybe it is fear of regret.
Maybe it is the stress of leaving a home that still works, even if it no longer fits.
Those are real reasons. And if waiting is the right call, I will tell you that.
But you need to know the difference between a real reason and a market excuse.
My Own Version of This
Ten years ago, I was lending in Regina and trying to get transferred to Kelowna.
I was doing everything I thought I was supposed to do. My numbers were strong. I controlled what I could control.
But the transfer never came.
And the thing I actually wanted was sitting right there the whole time.
Real estate.
My uncles were Realtors. My grandma was one. I grew up around it. I was drawn to it. But I kept putting it off.
“If the transfer comes through, then we will figure it out.”
The transfer was external. I had no control over it.
And waiting on it was costing us years.
Eventually, Maddie and I stopped waiting on the thing we could not control and acted on the thing we could.
That does not mean your answer should be “go.”
Your answer might be “stay.”
But either way, make sure the answer is honest.
So, Should You Move?
Here is the simplest way to think about it:
Move if your life, finances, and timing are ready.
Wait if the reason is real and has a clear finish line.
Be careful if your only reason is “the market,” but you cannot name what you are actually waiting for.
Do not just ask:
“How’s the Kelowna real estate market?”
Ask:
What am I actually waiting for?
Then ask:
Is that thing likely to happen?
That is where the real decision starts.
If you are buying in Kelowna, selling in Kelowna, upsizing, downsizing, looking at new construction, or planning an infill multifamily build, reply to this email or call/text me.
Bring me the honest answer:
“Here is what I am waiting for. Is it actually coming?”
If it is real, we will build a plan around it.
If the market is just standing in for something else, we will find that too.
No pressure either way. Sometimes the right move is to stay.
Mark & Maddie Coons
Selling Okanagan Group | eXp Realty Kelowna
778-946-6454
[email protected]
