2025 Central Okanagan Real Estate: Why the Year’s Biggest Sales Window is Still Ahead
It’s August, the Christmas ornaments are already on Costco’s shelves, and you might be thinking the year’s big real estate moves are behind us. But here’s the reality — the Central Okanagan market still has a lot of runway left. Historically, nearly 40% of all annual sales happen after July, and 2025 is shaping up to follow a similar pattern… with a few interesting twists.
Where We Stand Right Now
As of the end of July 2025, there have been 2,663 home sales recorded in the Central Okanagan.
That’s 23.24% below the 10-year average pace for the first seven months of the year.
The 10-year average for a full year is 5,608 sales. To match that this year, we would need a strong push in the last five months — and depending on which projection you look at, the finish line looks different.
Three Projection Paths
Optimistic Scenario (Seasonal Average Pace)
If we match the historical average sales for each month from August to December, 2025 would finish at 4,801 sales — about 85.62% of the 10-year average.
Conservative Scenario (Current Pace)
If sales from August onward continue at the same pace we’ve seen so far in 2025, the year would end at 4,304 sales — roughly 76.76% of the 10-year average.
Aggressive Scenario (Full 10-Year Average)
To actually match the 10-year total of 5,608 sales, we’d need about 2,944 sales between August and December. That’s 806 more than a typical late year — requiring a 37.7% increase in monthly sales pace, or about 589 sales/month compared to the usual 428 for this period.
Why This Year Feels Different
Yes, summer slowdowns are normal, but 2025 hasn’t followed the exact seasonal script.
We’ve had a mix of steady local demand and some hesitation — fueled by global trade uncertainty, interest rate talk, and a market that’s still finding its post-pandemic balance.
But here’s the key: even if we end up 7.35% below the 10-year average, that’s still a solid year when you factor in everything the market has faced.
And if we compare this year’s projected totals to pre-2020 averages, the difference is even smaller — proving that the current pace is still in line with several strong years in the last decade.
Seasonality: The Big Picture
Over the last 10 years, August through October have consistently been strong sales months.
November and December tend to slow, but those early fall months often make the year.
For sellers, this means pricing strategically now can put you in the sweet spot when buyers return from summer mode.
For buyers, this means acting decisively when the right property comes along — the late-year inventory can be tighter, but it’s often higher quality.
Buyer Playbook for Late 2025
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Get Pre-Approved Now – Don’t waste September waiting on paperwork.
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Know the Numbers – Understand your budget in light of potential interest rate changes.
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Be Offer-Ready – Late-year competition can be fierce for certain properties.
Seller Playbook for Late 2025
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Price for the Market, Not for Yesterday – Overpricing risks missing the fall wave.
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Stage & Photograph Well – Stand out before buyers start holiday-shopping for other things.
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Leverage the Data – Use the 10-year patterns to your advantage when setting timelines.
The Bottom Line
We’re entering one of the most strategic sales windows of the year.
Whether we finish close to the 10-year average or somewhere in the mid-4,000s, the opportunity is there for sellers to capitalize and for buyers to secure great properties before year-end.
The data says nearly 40% of this year’s deals are still to come.
The question is — will you be part of them?
Book Your Strategy Session to align your goals with the market’s best remaining months.
Let us know if there is ever anything we can do for you!
Mark and Maddie
Selling Kelowna Real Estate Group
778-744-0872
