Kelowna Real Estate 2025 Year in Review and 2026 Forecast
What Changed, What’s Real, and What Actually Matters for Buyers, Sellers, and Builders
If you only read headlines, it feels like the Kelowna real estate market is chaos.
Taxes, rules, bans, rebates, and promises — all mixed together.
But real estate doesn’t move on headlines.
It moves on rates, supply, confidence, and timing.
This post breaks down:
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What actually changed in 2025
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What is locked in for 2026
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What is still talk, not law
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What this means if you’re buying, selling, or building in Kelowna
No hype. No fear. Just facts and context.
The 30-Second Summary (Read This First)
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Interest rates eased in 2025 — that helped confidence, not prices.
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BC added a home flipping tax — fast flips are mostly gone.
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Short-term rental rules stayed tight — but vacancy matters.
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More sellers are coming from mortgage renewals, not panic.
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Builders are shifting from condos to infill and rentals, but costs are high.
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2026 will reward people who plan early, not react late.
What Changed in Kelowna Real Estate in 2025 (Already Happened)
1. Interest Rates Finally Came Down
Rates dropped through 2025 after peaking earlier.
Why it matters
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Buyers could qualify again.
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Sellers got more showings.
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Prices didn’t explode — because inventory was already higher.
The trade-off
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Lower rates help affordability.
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But renewals still hurt some owners who locked in low years ago.
2. BC Home Flipping Tax Started (Jan 1, 2025)
If you sell a property within 2 years, BC taxes the profit.
What this changed
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HGTV-style quick flips mostly stopped.
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Fewer fully renovated homes hit the market.
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Buyers should expect more “fix it yourself” homes.
Good
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Less short-term speculation.
Bad
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Less renovated resale supply.
3. Foreign Buyer Ban Stayed in Place
The federal foreign buyer ban was extended again.
Reality check
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It sounds big.
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In Kelowna, it affects very few actual transactions.
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Local prices are driven by locals, investors, and migration — not foreign buyers.
What Starts in 2026 (Already Scheduled)
BC Speculation & Vacancy Tax Gets Tougher
In 2026, the rules tighten.
What this means
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Empty homes cost more to hold.
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Some owners will sell rather than pay the tax.
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This adds slow, steady supply, not a flood.
What Might Change in 2026 (Still Not Final)
Short-Term Rentals in Kelowna
Kelowna STR rules depend heavily on rental vacancy rates.
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If vacancy stays low → rules stay tight.
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If vacancy rises above thresholds → exemptions become possible.
Important
This is not guaranteed. Anyone promising easy STR approvals is guessing.
Underused Housing Tax (UHT)
The federal UHT still applies in certain cases.
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Not all owners are affected.
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Many exemptions exist.
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Confusion causes more fear than the tax itself.
First-Time Buyer GST Rebate (New Builds)
There is a rebate, not an exemption.
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Buyers still pay GST up front.
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Eligible buyers can claim money back later.
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Applies mostly to new construction, not resale.
What This Means for Sellers in Kelowna
Good news
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More buyers are watching again.
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Properly priced homes still sell.
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Unique homes sell faster than average ones.
Reality
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Overpricing kills listings.
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Renovations don’t always pay back.
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Strategy matters more than ever.
Seller tip
Price for today’s market — not last year’s neighbor.
What This Means for Buyers in Kelowna
Good news
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More choice.
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Less pressure.
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More negotiating power.
Reality
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The best homes still sell fast.
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Waiting forever can cost more than acting smart.
Buyer tip
Buy based on payment comfort, not headlines.
What This Means for Infill Builders and Developers
Kelowna is changing how housing gets built.
Trends we’re seeing
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More duplex, triplex, and fourplex projects.
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Fewer condo presales.
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More purpose-built rentals.
Challenges
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High construction costs.
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DCCs and fees.
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Slower absorption.
Opportunity
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Small-scale infill in the right location still works.
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Data and pricing discipline matter more than ever.
FAQs (Quick Answers)
Is 2026 a good time to sell in Kelowna?
Yes — if you price correctly and plan early.
Are prices going to crash?
No data supports a crash. Flat and uneven is more realistic.
Will rates drop more?
Maybe — but buyers shouldn’t rely on predictions.
Are flips dead?
Quick flips mostly are. Long-term renovations still work.
Is Kelowna overbuilt?
No. Supply is improving, not excessive.
Final Thought
Real estate works on lag, not headlines.
By the time governments act, the market already moved.
If you’re thinking about:
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Selling in the next 6–12 months
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Buying with confidence
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Building infill in Kelowna
The best move is planning early — not reacting late.
Ready to Take the Next Step?
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Search Kelowna homes: https://sellingkelownarealestate.com/home-search/listings
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Want a home value or pricing plan? Reach out — no pressure, just clarity.
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Builders & landowners: Happy to talk zoning, pricing, and demand before you build.
Mark and Maddie Coons
Selling Kelowna Real Estate Group
Tel: 778-744-0872
