Kelowna Plays Different
BCREA released a housing study last week with a title I did not expect from an economist:
“The Phantom Recovery: Vibes, Supply Shocks, and the BC Housing Market.”
Yes, “vibes” made it into an economic report. Welcome to 2026.
But behind the unusual title is an important finding.
BC home sales remain historically low—not only because homes are expensive, but because Canadians feel financially insecure. In 2025, BC recorded its weakest home sales activity since 2012, and 2026 has been tracking even lower.
One statistic helps explain why.
Canadians currently estimate their chance of losing their job within the next 12 months at close to 20%. That is nearly the highest level recorded by the Bank of Canada’s consumer survey.
Think about that.
When people believe there is a one-in-five chance they could lose their income, they are unlikely to take on a new mortgage, move to a larger home or commit to a major real estate development.
The fear is real—but it does not fully match the data
For years, consumer confidence generally moved with inflation and unemployment.
When inflation and unemployment increased, people felt worse. When those numbers improved, confidence returned.
Since 2024, those lines have separated.
Economic conditions remained fairly steady, but consumer confidence fell sharply. BCREA calls this the phantom recovery because the market is not simply waiting for lower mortgage rates or cheaper homes.
It is waiting for people to feel secure again.
Then the June real estate numbers arrived.
BC and Kelowna are telling different stories
Across British Columbia, 7,225 homes sold in June 2026. That was up only 0.9% from June 2025 and was the first year-over-year increase since September.
However, provincial sales were still 18.4% below the ten-year June average.
That suggests a small improvement inside a market that remains historically slow.
The Central Okanagan real estate market produced a different result:
- Total residential sales increased 9.8%
- Single-family sales increased 5.3% to 218
- Townhome sales increased 11.3% to 69
- Condo sales increased 26.9% to 118
BC sales grew by less than 1%. Central Okanagan sales grew by almost 10%.
While BCREA was explaining why many buyers are staying out of the market, more buyers were purchasing homes in Kelowna, West Kelowna, Lake Country and the surrounding Central Okanagan.
But this is not a housing boom.
More homes sold, but prices remained soft
June benchmark prices were lower than one year earlier:
- Single-family home: $1,053,700, down 1.6%
- Townhome: $707,500, down 0.9%
- Condo or apartment: $495,100, down 3.4%
Homes also took longer to sell.
Single-family homes averaged 58 days on the market. Condos averaged 67 days.
That combination tells us exactly what kind of Kelowna real estate market we are in:
Buyers are returning, but they are buying on their terms.
The condo market is the clearest example. Condo sales increased by almost 27%, yet the benchmark price declined.
That is not a price recovery. It is increased activity supported by more attractive pricing.
What does this mean for Kelowna home buyers?
Buyers currently have more choice, more time and more negotiating power than they had during the strongest seller markets.
However, waiting for every headline to become positive could mean missing the period when prices are softer and sellers are more willing to negotiate.
A buyer should not ask only:
“Is now a good time to buy in Kelowna?”
The better questions are:
What is happening with this property type, in this neighbourhood, at this price?
A condo in Kelowna North, a family home in Lower Mission and a townhome in West Kelowna can all behave differently during the same month.
The right opportunity will depend on the property’s condition, competition, location, days on market and the seller’s motivation.
What does this mean for Kelowna home sellers?
There are more buyers in the market, but they are cautious and price-sensitive.
Homes that are well prepared, properly marketed and priced against current competition can still sell. Properties priced around what the owner hopes the market will become may sit much longer.
This is not a market where simply listing a home creates urgency.
Sellers need to understand:
- Their direct neighbourhood competition
- Recent comparable sales
- Current buyer search ranges
- How their property compares in condition and value
- Whether their pricing strategy creates interest or helps sell competing homes
The first price does not have to be the lowest price. It needs to be a price buyers can defend using the alternatives available today.
What does this mean for Kelowna developers and home builders?
The increase in sales is encouraging, but developers should not confuse stronger activity with unlimited demand.
For Kelowna infill development, multifamily projects, townhomes, small-lot homes and missing-middle housing, the most important issue is product-market fit.
Before purchasing a development property or launching a project, builders should study:
- Achievable selling prices, not only current asking prices
- Absorption by unit type and price range
- Competing resale and new-construction inventory
- Buyer demand for bedrooms, parking and outdoor space
- Servicing, construction and financing costs
- Zoning, setbacks, density and development timelines
- The number of sales needed to satisfy presale financing
Condo sales are rising, but prices remain sensitive. Townhomes may offer a different demand profile. Family-sized infill homes may perform differently from investor-focused units.
There is no single “Kelowna development market.”
A viable project depends on the land cost, buildable density, unit mix and the price buyers will actually pay when the homes are ready.
For owners of potential development land, future zoning or density does not automatically equal development value. Builders will still deduct demolition, servicing, financing, construction, holding costs, risk and profit when deciding what they can pay.
Kelowna’s economy also plays differently
The economic concern affecting Canada is heavily tied to tariffs, trade disruption and employment uncertainty.
However, a Canadian Chamber of Commerce analysis placed Kelowna among the country’s top five metro areas making gains in exports outside the United States.
That does not make Kelowna immune to national uncertainty. Mortgage rates, construction costs and consumer confidence still affect us.
It does suggest that national economic fear may not fit Kelowna as neatly as broad headlines imply.
Different does not mean protected. It means the local fundamentals deserve their own analysis.
Is the Kelowna real estate market recovering?
In sales activity, yes. In prices, not yet.
More homes are selling, but buyers still expect value. Prices remain softer, and properties are taking longer to sell.
That creates different opportunities:
For buyers: More negotiating room and less pressure.
For sellers: More active buyers, but little tolerance for overpricing.
For developers and builders: Signs of demand, but projects must work using today’s prices, costs and absorption—not hoped-for future conditions.
Do not make a Kelowna real estate decision from a national headline
National data can help explain interest rates and the economy.
Provincial data can show broader movement across BC.
Neither tells you what your Kelowna home is worth, whether a specific development property makes sense or whether your price range is beginning to tighten.
Your decision should be based on your neighbourhood, property type, price range, timeline and competition.
Kelowna often punches above its weight, but we are rarely large enough to lead the national business headlines. That means our market is often buried inside provincial averages that may not describe what is happening here.
That is why we write these updates.
One thing to take with you
The fear slowing the BC housing market may not fit Kelowna as closely as the headlines suggest. Kelowna plays different—and the June numbers are showing it.
For a breakdown of what the market means for your home, purchase, development property or infill project, email,call or text us.
A useful first conversation normally takes about ten minutes.
Mark & Maddie
Selling Okanagan Group | eXp Realty Kelowna
Office: 778-946-6454
Cell: 250-801-0361
[email protected]
