Is Your Mortgage Renewal Coming Up?

Is Your Mortgage Renewal Coming Up? Should You Sell Now? (Kelowna Homeowners Guide)

Your renewal is coming… and it could feel like a pay cut

If you got your mortgage in 2020–2022, you probably locked in a very low rate. Now, a big “renewal wave” is hitting Canada in 2025–2026—and many homeowners will renew into higher payments.

That matters in Kelowna, because a lot of homeowners stretched to buy when rates were cheap. When the rate resets, the monthly payment can jump fast.

What is the “renewal wave” (and why people keep talking about it)?

The Bank of Canada estimates about 60% of outstanding mortgages are expected to renew in 2025 or 2026.

BMO’s economists also expect renewals to “peak” around mid-2026, and they show a wide range of outcomes—some people see increases, some don’t.

The part that matters most:

• BMO points out that in 2026 renewals, about 15% of mortgages could see payments rise 10%–20%, and almost 25% could see payments rise more than 20%.

• The Bank of Canada also says many renewing fixed-rate borrowers could face ~15%–20% average payment increases (even though results vary a lot by borrower).

So no—this doesn’t mean “everyone must sell.”
But it does mean a lot of homeowners will have a money decision to make.

How mortgage rates changed in the last 5 years 

Rates were low in 2021, then jumped hard in 2022–2023, and eased a bit after that.

Using CMHC/CANNEX lender-quoted rates (5-year term), the average 5-year rate looked roughly like this:

• 2021: ~3.28%

• 2022: ~4.91%

• 2023: ~6.04%

• 2024: ~5.84%

• 2025 (Jan–May): ~5.20%

And as of Jan 15, 2026, Ratehub shows some best available 5-year fixed rates around ~3.84% (varies by down payment, insured vs uninsured, and borrower strength).

Also important: the Bank of Canada rate went from a high level in 2024 (cut to 4.75% in June 2024) to 2.25% after later cuts, which helped bring borrowing costs down from the peak.

A real example: what higher rates can do on a $1,000,000 home

Let’s keep this simple and realistic.

Example home price: $1,000,000
Down payment: 20% ($200,000)
Mortgage: $800,000
Amortization: 25 years

Approx monthly payments:

What that means:

If someone bought with a low rate (~1.8%) and renews near ~5.2%, the payment can jump about $1,457/month (around 44% more).

That is why renewals can feel scary—especially if:

• groceries and life costs also went up

• the home needs repairs

• there is other debt (cars, lines of credit, credit cards)

• income didn’t rise enough

“Should I sell now?” Here are the 3 paths (with pros + cons)

Path 1: Sell before renewal hits

Pros

• You can pick your timing (instead of being forced later)

• You can cash out equity and reduce stress

• You may downsize and cut monthly costs

Cons

• You have to move (and moving costs money)

• If you buy again, your next mortgage may still be higher than your old one

Who this fits: People who already feel tight each month, or who were “barely okay” even at the old rate.

Path 2: Keep the home, but rework the mortgage plan

This could mean: longer amortization, different term length, fixed vs variable, or paying down a chunk at renewal.

Pros

• You keep the home

• You might reduce the payment shock

• You avoid selling costs

Cons

• Longer amortization can mean more interest over time

• You still have to qualify and get lender approval

Who this fits: People who like the home and can afford it with a smarter structure.

BMO notes lenders may work with borrowers (like extending amortization “in a pinch”) to help manage payment shock.

Path 3: Hold and do nothing until renewal

Pros

• No immediate decisions

• Simple (for now)

Cons

• You might be surprised by the new payment

• Waiting can remove good options (time is power in negotiations)

Who this fits: People with lots of savings cushion, strong income, and low stress about the new payment.

Quick self-check: are you at risk of becoming “house poor”?

If you answer “yes” to 2 or more, it’s time to plan:

• My renewal is within 18 months

• I would struggle if my payment went up $800–$1,500/month

• I’m carrying other debt that’s growing

• I’m using credit for basics more often

• I feel behind, even though I work hard

What I’d do if you were my family member in Kelowna

Don’t guess. Run the numbers before the bank letter shows up.

A good plan includes:

1. Your renewal date + current balance

2. What your payment becomes at 3 rate options

3. Your best “Plan B” (sell, downsize, rent short-term, or restructure)

4. A realistic Kelowna sale price range and net proceeds estimate

Call to action: Want a simple “Renewal Stress Test” plan?

If your mortgage renewal is coming up and you’re wondering, “Should we sell now?”—I’ll help you map out the cleanest option.

• Book a quick call: https://calendly.com/sellingkelownarealestate 

• Or text/call: 778-744-0872

• Email: [email protected] 

Sources (click to view)

• Bank of Canada: renewal share + expected payment changes 

• BMO: renewal wave commentary + distribution of payment increases

• CMHC/CANNEX mortgage rate table (2021–2025)

• Ratehub: current best-available 5-year fixed snapshot (Jan 15, 2026)

• Bank of Canada: June 2024 rate cut press release

• Reuters: policy rate at 2.25% (late 2025)

Mark Coons Personal Real Estate Corporation, BBA, CE
Team Lead, Selling Okanagan Group
REALTOR® | eXp Realty Kelowna | Relocated to Kelowna in 2018
778-744-0872 | [email protected]  | https://calendly.com/sellingkelownarealestate