Real Estate and the Federal Election: How Does Kelowna's Market Respond?
With the federal election just 12 days away on April 28, many are asking:
Will this impact Kelowna’s real estate market?
To find out, I reviewed home sales in Kelowna during the last three Canadian federal elections, comparing them to the 10-year average for each month.
📊 Election Year Sales Breakdown
| Year | Election Month | Sales | 10-Year Avg | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | October | 432 | 417.5 | 🔼 Above average |
| 2019 | October | 383 | 417.5 | 🔽 Slightly below |
| 2021 | September | 549 | 453.9 | 🔼 Strong market |
In both 2015 and 2021, the market stayed strong — even during election month. Only 2019 showed a minor slowdown, but even then, it was marginal.
👉 Key takeaway: Election cycles don’t appear to have a consistent effect on buyer or seller behaviour in Kelowna.
🗓 What Makes 2025 Different?
Unlike past elections held in the fall, this vote hits during Kelowna’s spring real estate season, typically the most active time of year.
March 2025 Sales:
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📈 344 homes sold (up from 299 in March 2024)
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⚖️ Still below the 10-year March average of 490.7
Momentum is building — a pattern somewhat similar to 2019 — but this time, the macroeconomic conditions are different.
🌐 What’s Really Influencing the Market?
The BC Real Estate Association’s Economic Policy Uncertainty Index just hit a new high.
Why?
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Tariffs driving up construction costs
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Stock market volatility
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Rising interest rate pressures
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Looming policy changes depending on election outcome
Despite this, Kelowna’s housing market is showing resilience, especially compared to other regions in BC.
🏗 Developers & Home Builders: Election Promises Could Shift the Math
Federal policies this year directly target new construction affordability — which impacts both developers and pre-sale buyers.
Conservative Platform:
✅ Remove GST on new homes under $1.3M
✅ No buyer restrictions
Liberal Platform:
✅ Remove GST on new builds under $1M
✅ Applies to first-time buyers only
This could mean $50,000–$65,000 in savings, depending on the price point — potentially encouraging buyers to delay decisions until after the vote.
📉 Why Some Buyers Are Holding Back
While election history doesn’t show major market shifts, these specific 2025 policy proposals are big enough to cause hesitation, especially among:
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First-time homebuyers
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Developers & investors targeting infill multifamily builds
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Buyers of under-construction or pre-sale homes
🔍 Final Thoughts: Timing Your Move in Kelowna
There's no historical proof that federal elections drastically impact real estate in Kelowna.
What does matter?
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Seasonal momentum
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Local demand
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Economic conditions
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Inventory and construction costs
🎯 Whether you're a home seller, buyer, or Kelowna infill developer, don’t let political noise throw off your timing. The best time to move is when it aligns with your goals, not just policy announcements.
✅ Call to Action
Thinking about buying, selling, or starting a build in 2025?
Reach out for a free, no-pressure market assessment. Let’s see if the timing makes sense for you.
📲 Contact Mark Coons at Selling Kelowna Real Estate Group
📧 info@sellingkelownarealestate.com
📱 778-744-0872
